THE STATE EDUCATION DEPARTMENT / THE UNIVERSITY OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK / ALBANY, NY 12234

 

TO:	Full Board
FROM:	James A. Kadamus
SUBJECT:	Analysis of Graduation Rates for the 2001 Student Cohort
DATE:	January 4, 2006
STRATEGIC GOAL:	Goals 1 and 2
AUTHORIZATION(S):

 

SUMMARY

 

Issue for Discussion

 

Does the graduation rate data for the 2000 and 2001 student cohorts support the initiatives to be undertaken for high schools in the Call to Action follow-up document to the New York Education Summit, especially setting targets for high school graduation and holding local school boards and the Chancellor of the New York City schools accountable for high school performance?

 

Reason(s) for Consideration

 

Review of policy.

Proposed Handling

 

This question will come before the full Board at your January meeting.

 

Procedural History

 

Last month, the Regents received summary data on the outcomes of students in the 2000 cohort for all public high schools in the State, in New York City, and in the rest of State as well as data on selected performance indicators for the 127 high schools identified as having graduation rates under 70 percent.  Staff indicated they would provide additional data analyses relating to the 2001 student cohort for the January meeting.

Background Information

 

In December 2004, the Committee received an analysis of the Regents exam performance and educational outcomes of students who first entered grade 9 in the 2000-01 school year.  It showed a disturbing picture of many students who entered high school unprepared to do high school-level work, do not pass their courses and earn fewer than the 22 local high school credits they need for graduation in four years.  Further, the data showed that these students were concentrated originally in 135 high schools in 12 school districts and represented about 22 percent of the State’s high school enrollment.  Several of those high schools were closed in 2005 so we now have 127 schools from 12 school districts that we are tracking. 

 

For your January meeting, we are providing statewide graduation rate results for the 2000 and 2001 student cohorts and school-level graduation rate data for the identified 127 high schools.  A separate report will be submitted to the Regents EMSC-VESID Committee in January on the New York State High School Initiative which identifies activities undertaken by the 12 school districts last year and the commitments they have identified to undertake in 2006.  In February, we will provide disaggregated data for the 2001 student cohort and the 127 high schools.

 

We continue to establish ongoing capacity building with teams from the 12 districts and 127 schools and to create a greater sense of urgency to improve student performance.  That work has concentrated on a short list of practices with a high probability of success.  As we learned at the Summit on New York Education, additional work is needed to build urgency on high schools in areas such as the following:

 

1.               Set targets for high school graduation and measure results.

2.               Make local school boards accountable for high school performance.

3.               Check teacher qualifications and order changes where necessary to ensure qualified staff.

4.               Strengthen teaching through professional developed focused on proven curricula and lesson plans.

5.               Update school safety plans.

6.               Engage the public and students.

7.               Improve achievement among the highest performing students.

 

Recommendation

 

We recommend that the Regents review the attached data analyses and begin the discussion of how to set targets for high school graduation and how to engage local school boards and the Chancellor of the New York City schools on strategies for improving high school performance.

 

Timetable for Implementation

 

Staff will continue to provide the Committee with reports on the progress of the 127 high schools in improving student performance.

 

Attachments

Analysis of Graduation Rates for the 2001 Cohort Based on the 2005 STEP File

 

Last month, we presented the Board of Regents with data on the outcomes of students in the 2000 cohort, students who first entered grade 9 in the 2000-01 school year. We presented data for all public high schools in the State, in New York City, and in the rest of State. We also presented outcomes for 127 of the 135 high schools identified in January 2005 as having graduation rates under 70 percent that had already been identified as needing improvement or as under Registration Review (SURR) under the State accountability system. These schools are located in 12 school districts: New York City, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Yonkers, Mount Vernon, Amsterdam, Roosevelt, Hempstead, Wyandanch, Freeport and Central Islip.

This paper presents graduation rates for the 2001 cohort for public schools, statewide, in New York City, and in rest of State schools, and in the 127 high schools identified in January 2005.  The figures are based on analyses of student records in the STEP files submitted to the Department in August 2005, which reported on student outcomes through June 30, 2005.

Review of 2000 Cohort Results

Table 1 reviews the outcomes of the 2000 cohort after four years (presented in December 2004) and after five years (presented in December 2005). The four-year outcomes were based on STEP files submitted by districts in August 2004; the five-year outcomes were based on STEP files submitted by districts in August 2005. The Department began collecting high school assessment and outcome data through STEP in fall 2002. In each subsequent year, the files have become more complete and accurate. Compared with the 2004 STEP file, the 2005 STEP files included almost 11,000 additional students identified as entering high school in 2000-01.  Since records were unlikely to be omitted for cohort members who graduated, it is reasonable to assume that, if records for these additional students had been included in the 2004 STEP files, the graduation rate would have been lower than 67.4 percent.

An example of the increased accuracy of reporting is that over 7,000 additional cohort members were reported as transferring to general education development (GED) program in 2005 than in 2004. We provided additional technical assistance to districts on reporting transfers to GED in 2004-05.

The data in Table 1 document that many students who are reported as still enrolled after four years of high school will graduate in the fifth year, transfer to GED, or drop out.  Nevertheless, 5.7 percent of the 2000 cohort was still enrolled at the end of their fifth year of high school.

Table 1

The Percentage of Students in the 2000 Cohort by Outcome

After Four Years (June 30, 2004) and After Five Year (June 30, 2005) for All Public High Schools

Outcome	as of June 30, 2004		as of June 30, 2005
	Number	Percent	Number	Percent
Regents/Local Diploma	134,248	67.4	149,757	71.3
IEP Diploma	2,889	1.4	4,369	2.1
Enrolled	34,548	17.3	11,893	5.7
Transferred to GED	3,615	1.8	11,946	5.7
Dropped Out	23,796	11.9	32,194	15.3
Total	199,312*	100.0	210,159	100.0

*         The total includes 216 students reported as exiting for other reasons.

2001 Cohort Results

The 2005 STEP file included records for 259,692 students (both general-education students and students with disabilities) reported to have first entered grade 9 in the 2001-02 school year. Of those records, 214,494 reported students who had graduated, earned an IEP diploma, dropped out, entered a GED program, or were still enrolled. The records of these students were used in these analyses. Another 11,982 records reported that a student had left New York State public schools to transfer out of State, to a nonpublic school, or to home instruction, or that the student had died. Because these students were no longer in the pool of possible graduates, these records were removed from the study. The remaining 33,216 records reported that the student had transferred to another district at some time between first entering grade 9 in the 2001-02 school year and June 30, 2005. These students were assumed to have duplicate records reported by the district to which the student transferred and were not included in the study.

Table 2 compares the number of records for each cohort reported in STEP with the first–time grade 9 enrollment reported on the annual BEDS forms in fall 2000 and fall 2001 and with the number of grade 8 students tested in May 2000 and May 2001. In relation to reported first-time grade 9 enrollment, the number of 2005 STEP records for students in the 2000 and 2001 cohorts was equivalent.  Because students may enter the cohort after grade 9, it is not unexpected that cohort membership would exceed grade 9 enrollment.  In comparing the number of 2005 STEP records for each cohort with the number of grade 8 students taking the mathematics assessment in May 2000 and 2001, the 2005 STEP records indicated an increased number of tested students for the 2001 cohort than the 2000 cohort.

Table 2

Comparison of Records Reported through STEP with BEDS First-Time Grade 9 Enrollment and Number Tested on Grade 8 Mathematics Assessment

	2000 Cohort		2001 Cohort
	2004 STEP	2005 STEP	2005 STEP
Number of Student Records Reported	199,312	210,159	214,494
Number of Cohort Tested in Grade 8	198,512	198,512	199,330
First-Time Grade 9 Enrollment (BEDS)	203,917		207,315

 

Tables 3-5 show the percentages of 2001 cohort members in each outcome category as of June 30, 2005. Statewide, four years after first entering grade 9, more than 64 percent of this cohort had graduated and another 1.8 percent had earned IEP diplomas. Based on the 2000 cohort results, we can expect the percentage of graduates to increase substantially by June 30, 2006. The grade 9 enrollment in 2001 exceeded that in 2000 by 3,398 students. Comparing the number of graduates shows that the count for the 2001 cohort exceeded the count for the 2000 cohort by 3,456.  The number of IEP diplomas reported for the 2001 cohort exceeded that reported for the 2000 by almost 1,000.  (Some of this difference may also be better reporting on STEP in 2005 than in 2004.)  The number of reported dropouts was almost the same in both years. Almost 5,000 additional students in the 2001 cohort were reported as still enrolled. Almost five percent of 2001 cohort members had entered a GED program; we do not have data showing the number of these students who may have earned high school equivalency diplomas.

Not surprisingly, New York City, which serves a large percentage of at-risk students, had a lower graduation rate than rest of State schools. The percentage of New York City students who were still enrolled was more than three times greater that in rest of State high schools. Therefore, New York City’s graduation rate may be expected to increase by a larger amount than the rest of State graduation rate.

The calculations used in the present study are different than those used by the New York City Department of Education in their longitudinal cohort studies. New York City names their cohorts according to the expected date of graduation; therefore, the State’s 2001 Cohort would be New York City’s Class of 2005. The Class of 2005 is different from the State’s 2001 cohort in that it does not include students with disabilities educated in self-contained classrooms. In New York City’s graduation-rate calculation, students who earned high school equivalency diplomas are counted as graduates. The inclusion of all students with disabilities in the cohort and the exclusion of high school equivalency diploma recipients from the count of graduates result in the State reporting a lower graduation rate than New York City reports. New York City has not yet published the four-year graduation rate for the Class of 2005.

 

Table 3

The Percentage of Students in the 2001 Cohort by

Outcomes as of June 30, 2005 after Four Years for All Public High Schools

Outcomes as of June 30, 2005	Total Public
	Number	Percent
Regents/Local Diploma	137,704	64.2
IEP Diploma	3,877	1.8
Enrolled	39,384	18.4
Transferred to GED	10,226	4.8
Dropped Out	23,303	10.9
Total	214,494	100.0

 

Table 4

The Percentage of Students in the 2001 Cohort by

Outcomes as of June 30, 2005 after Four Years for All New York City High Schools

Outcomes as of June 30, 2005	Total Public
	Number	Percent
Regents/Local Diploma	32,092	43.5
IEP Diploma	1,307	1.8
Enrolled	25,735	34.9
Transferred to GED	3,600	4.9
Dropped Out	11,079	15.0
Total	73,813	100.0

 

Table 5

The Percentage of Students in the 2001 Cohort by

Outcomes as of June 30, 2005 after Four Years for All Rest of State High Schools

Outcomes as of June 30, 2005	Total Public
	Number	Percent
Regents/Local Diploma	105,612	75.1
IEP Diploma	2,570	1.8
Enrolled	13,649	9.7
Transferred to GED	6,626	4.7
Dropped Out	12,224	8.7
Total	140,681	100.0

 

Rates for the Identified High Schools

Last month we presented the graduation rates of the 2000 cohort in the identified schools. We also presented data showing that these schools have more at-risk students and fewer resources than higher-performing schools. The identified schools serve students who are more likely to be eligible for subsidized lunches, to be disabled, to be limited English proficient, and to have repeated grade 9 than students in the typical public high school. The greater risk factors of these students are not matched with greater resources to meet their needs. In fact, all identified schools are in districts that have high student needs in relation to district ability to raise resources locally. Students in these schools are more likely than other students to be taught by teachers without appropriate certification; they have fewer books and computers per 100 students.

The analyses of the 2000 cohort data submitted in December 2004 were intended primarily to provide improved estimates of cohort graduation and dropout rates at the total public, New York City and rest of State levels.  In calculating the school graduation rates for the 135 identified schools, we only included students who met the criteria for membership in the school accountability graduation rate cohort.  Students who did not meet these criteria were included only in the calculation of district-level graduation rates.

In these analyses of the 2000 and 2001 cohort results based on 2005 STEP data, we have anticipated the cohort definition which will be used for graduation-rate accountability beginning with the 2003 cohort. In calculating the school-level rates, we have included all 2001 cohort members whose last enrollment record in the school showed that they had been enrolled in that school for a minimum of five months.  This procedure will provide the greatest consistency with analyses of future cohorts and provides rates that more accurately reflect the performance of each school.

Table 6 provides summary data for 127 of the 135 schools that were identified in the January 2005 Regents item. The remaining schools were closed. Almost 80 percent of these 127 schools were in New York City. The four-year average graduation rate of these schools was substantially lower than the total public graduation rate (40.0 percent compared with 64.2 percent) and lower than the New York City public school rate, 43.5 percent.  Similarly these schools had substantially higher percentages of students who dropped out or transferred to GED programs than all public high schools. On the other hand, 35.1 percent of students in these schools were still enrolled four years after first entering grade 9 and therefore may graduate at a later date. The attached school-level data shows that only two of the identified schools had four-year graduation rates as high or higher than the State average. Based on the five-year graduation rates of the 2000 cohort, we can expect that more of these high schools will exceed the State average by June 30, 2006.

Table 6

The Percentage of Students in the 2001 Cohort by

Outcomes as of June 30, 2005 after Four Years for 127 Selected High Schools

Outcomes as of June 30, 2005	Total Public
	Number	Percent
Regents/Local Diploma	17,856	40.0
IEP Diploma	970	2.2
Enrolled	15,651	35.1
Transferred to GED	2,617	5.9
Dropped Out	7,521	16.9
Total	44,615	100.0

 

 

Table 1:  Information on Selected Schools: 2001 Cohort Data